棉花盲蝽象预报方法研究与应用  

Research on Forecast Method of Cotton Mirids

作　　者：吴昊 段沙丽 张玲芳 刘定忠 鲁速明 

机构地区：[1]江西省九江市气象局,江西九江332000 [2]九江市经济作物站,江西九江332000 [3]彭泽县植保植检站,江西彭泽332600 [4]江西省棉科所,江西九江332105

出　　处：《棉花学报》2010年第1期57-62,共6页Cotton Science

基　　金：江西省防灾减灾研究基金(GJZ200606)

摘　　要：小波分析表明,近28年来鄱阳湖北部棉花盲蝽象发生等级存在着明显的5年与6～8年的振荡周期。其中,1990-1998年尺度为5年的主周期很明显,1990年以前尺度为7～8年的主周期较明显,1999-2008年显现明显的6～7年主周期。这也表明棉花盲蝽象的发生、消长存在着"年际生态后续效应"(即前、后年之间存在着一定的因果关系)。对比分析与相关分析表明:棉花盲蝽象的发生与冬季气候背景及中短期气象条件存在着显著的相关性。基于上述研究,通过逐步回归建立了棉花盲蝽象长期预报模式与中短期气象条件适宜度预报模式,并通过预报试验获得了在同一农业气候区推广应用的信度依据。The cotton mirids in Pengze county, Jiangxi province, also show the possibility of the development from the secondary pest hazard to the main one. Wavelet analysis show that： nearly for 28 years, cotton mirids in the northem part of the Boyang Lake occurred as there is a clear hierarchy of 5-year and 6- to 8-year oscillation cycle. There showed a clear main 5-year cycle in 1990-1998, a 7- to 8-year main cycle before 1990, and a clear 6 - 7 years main cycle in 1999 2008. This also showed that cotton mirid occurrence, growth and decline exist ＂ecological inter-annual follow-up effect＂. Comparative analysis and correlation analysis showed that： the occurrence of cotton mirids had significant relevance with the winter climate and the short-term weather conditions. Based on the above-mentioned study, by the stepwise regression analysis, a long-term forecasting models and a long/short-term forecasting model of meteorological condition suitbility for cotton mirids were established, and the same experiment of forecasting was to promote the application of agro-climatic based on reliability.

关 键 词：棉花盲蝽象 预报方法 研究 应用 

分 类 号：S435.622[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]