不确定性校正对地震危险性分析结果的影响  

INFLUENCE OF UNCERTAINTY CORRECTION ON RESULT OF SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

作　　者：聂永安[1] 陈宇坤[1] 崔晓峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市地震局,天津300201

出　　处：《灾害学》1998年第4期12-16,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

摘　　要：对现行地震危险性分析模型中的不确定性校正方法所涉及到的一些问题进行了讨论．以地震烈度的危险性分析为例，说明危险性曲线的衰减系数及不确定性大小是影响校正结果的主要因素．总的趋势是：对低烈度，校正后危险性有所降低，降低幅度达50％以上；对高烈度，校正后危险性有所提高，提高幅度可达数倍以上。Some problems related to the uncertainty correction method in the present seismic hazard analysis model are discussed. Taking the hazard analysis of seismic intensity as a case, our study shows that the attenuation coefficient of risk curve and magnitude of uncertainty are the main factors to affect the corrected results. The general tendency is that the risk level will be decreased by more than 50% for lower intensity, while the risk level will be increased by several times for higher intensity after uncertainty correction.

关 键 词：地震 危险性分析 临界烈度 不确定性校正 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]