渭北旱原区域气候变化及其对冬小麦产量的潜在影响  

The potential response of wheat yield to regional climate change and meteorological factors in the arid plain north of the Weihe River

作　　者：王宝良[1,2] 潘贤章[1] 梁音[1] 刘通[1] 杨轩[1] 穆欢[1,2] 苏春丽[1] 关庆伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京土壤研究所,江苏南京210008 [2]南京林业大学研究生院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2010年第1期227-232,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目"耕地保育与持续高效现代农业试点工程"土壤主题(KSCX1-YW-09-02)

摘　　要：对渭北旱原长武地区冬小麦产量与农业气候因子变化进行了通径分析,结果表明,降水和地温是影响该地区冬小麦生产的主要气候因子,播种-出苗期降水对小麦产量的影响较大,在分孽-越冬、返青-拔节、灌浆-乳熟期地温对产量影响更大。该地区近50年来年均气温呈明显上升趋势,而年降水总量总体有减少趋势,波动较大; 且在播种-出苗期降水量有减少的趋势,极值出现几率增加,而在返青-拔节期地温有增加的趋势,且2000年后增加幅度增大。因此,在区域气候变化影响下,随着气候变暖和降水量减少及波动性增加,将会导致未来冬小麦产量的波动性增加。The path analysis was made between meteorological factors and yield of wheat in Changwu County in the arid plain north of the Weihe River. The results showed that： the major meteorological factors which effected yield of wheat were precipitation and surface temperature. Precipitation had great effect during sowing to seedling emergence stage, while surface temperature had even more remarkable effect during the stages of tillering to overwintering, turning green to jointing, and filling to milk. During past 50 years in this area, air temperature had a rising trend significantly, basically identical with global climate change. With great fluctuation, the annual precipitation had a decreasing tendency in general, especially during sowing to emergence period. The ground temperature had an increasing trend during turning green to jointing period, with a greater range after the year of 2000. So it was good to improve the yield of wheat by elimate wanning, but with a fluctuation change. precipitation, it was hard to make sure the yield under the regional climate

关 键 词：渭北旱原 小麦 产量 气候因子 通径分析 

分 类 号：S165.27[农业科学—农业气象学]