政府支出对居民消费的影响——对Barro-Ricardo等价之谜的中国经验分析  

The effect of government expenditure on household consumption——The empirical analysis on Barro-Ricardo equivalence puzzle in China

作　　者：袁芳英[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,200025

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2010年第1期12-18,共7页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：湘潭大学博士与博士后专项经费项目(082506035)

摘　　要：本文首先建立一个带有不确定性因素的消费者跨期最优化理论模型,通过理论模型推导发现,政府支出对居民消费的影响主要取决于消费者相对风险规避系数及居民消费支出与政府支出之间的相关系数。在对此模型的拓展研究时求解了巴罗-李嘉图等价定理成立的条件。然后以中国为例,在李嘉图等价框架下实证分析了政府支出对居民消费的影响,发现:短期内,李嘉图等价不成立,政府支出与居民消费呈互补关系,即政府支出增加将导致居民消费增加。与通过征税来增加政府支出相比,通过发行债券增加政府支出对居民消费需求的扩张效应更大。但在长期中,政府支出将挤出居民消费支出。In this paper we establish a consumer intertemporal optimization models, and find that the effect of government expenditure on household consumption depends primarily on the consumer relative risk aversion coefficient and the correlation coefficient between household consumption expenditure and government expenditure. And then taking China as an example, under the framework of the Ricardian Equivalence we analyze the effect of government expenditure on household consumption. In short term, Ricardian Equivalence is not right; government spending and household consumption was the complementary relationship. The issuance of bonds is more useful than taxation to increase household consumption demand. But in long term, the government expenditure will extrude household consumption demand.

关 键 词：政府支出 居民消费 巴罗-李嘉图等价之谜 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]