Muhlbauer评分法在输油管道风险评价中的应用及分析  

Application and Analysis of Muhlbauer Assessment Method in Oil Pipeline Risk Assessment

作　　者：张艳桥[1] 赵薇[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳市环境保护局,沈阳110011 [2]沈阳环境科学研究院,沈阳110016

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2010年第1期69-72,共4页Environmental Protection Science

摘　　要：与其它运输方式相比,管道运输在正常运行情况下,其环境污染小。但是,产生事故后其环境风险大。本文利用Muhlbauer评分法对天津-北京航空煤油输送管道进行了风险评价,经过模拟计算后,定量分析了该输油管道的相对风险数,并提出了提高管道运行安全性的措施。评价结果表明:该管道的相对风险数为59,存在一定风险,但风险可接受。相对风险数中可变因素占66.5%,在不增加项目基建投资基础上,通过加强管理等措施,可提高可变因素的指数分值和相对风险数,使管道安全性能提高16.1%。In contrast with other transportation approach, pipeline transportation produces less pollutants to environment in working order. However, environmental risk is serious when accidents happen. Using Muhlbauer assessment method, risk assessment to Tianjing- Beijing aviation kerosene transport pipeline was researched. The pipeline safe analog computation was carried out and a quantitative analysis of the relative risk scores was made to seek a way to enhance the pipeline safety. The results showed that the relative risk score of the pipeline was 59. The pipeline had certain risk but could be accepted. The variable factors accounted for 66.5 % and the safety of pipeline could rise by 16.1% , through strengthening management and enhancing the score fractions of variable factors without increasing the capital construction investment.

关 键 词：输油管道风险评价 Muhlbauer评分法 相对风险数 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]