基于NEGM(1,1)模型的因果预测方法及应用研究  

The Causal Prediction Method and Its Application Based on NEGM(1,1)

作　　者：马保国[1] 刘学敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]徐州空军学院航材管理系,江苏徐州221000 [2]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2010年第3期91-95,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：非等间隔时间序列在工程技术问题中是常见的.研究了一类非等间隔广义时间序列的预测问题,也就是将因果预测模型中的自变量作为广义时间,应用NEGM(1,1)模型将因果预测转化为时间序列预测,并应用空军航材消耗实例进行了模型检验.实践表明本文的方法具有广泛的使用价值.The non-equidistance time series is familiar in the engineering technique problems. This paper researches on the prediction problem of one kind of generalized non-equidistance time series. NEGM （1, 1） model is applied to transform the causal prediction into time series prediction with an independent variable in causal prediction model as generalized time, and the model is tested by an example of air materiel consumption. Practices show us that the method developed in this paper has wide use value.

关 键 词：非等间隔GM(1 1)模型 因果预测 广义时间序列 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]