海伦地区水热耦合特征及其对大豆产量的影响  

The Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Coupling and Its Effect on Soybean Production in Hailun

作　　者：张海萍[1] 陈利顶[2] 王晓燕[1] 马岩[2,3] 赵新峰[2,3] 杨丽蓉[2,3] 郑海峰[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京100085 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2010年第1期131-138,共8页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2005CB121107);国家自然科学基金项目(40621061)

摘　　要：农业是受气候变化影响的主要敏感行业之一,气候变暖带来的气温升高以及降水格局的改变对农作物生产有利有弊。论文基于黑龙江海伦地区1978—2004年生长季≥10℃有效积温、降水量和统计年鉴中的大豆产量数据,以积温和降水在季节上的匹配程度作为判断水热耦合的指标,采用气候波动指数、减产风险指数作为大豆产量受气候波动影响程度的指标,研究了在生长季降水量下降和≥10℃有效积温增加的趋势下水热耦合的年际和年内变化特征及其对大豆产量的影响,并分析了偏干旱、正常和湿润年份大豆产量受气候波动影响的特征和减产风险性。结果表明,大豆气候波动指数和产量减产风险指数从大到小均依次为偏干旱年、偏湿润年和正常年,说明海伦地区受气候暖干化影响较大。Agriculture is one of the main sensitive sectors affected by climate change. Warming and precipitation pattern＇s change have both advantages and disadvantages for crop production. Based on temperature and precipitation data during the growing season from 1978 to 2004, the relationship between the coupling of temperature and precipitation and the yield of soybean in Hailun of Heilongjiang Province was analyzed. Moving average was applied to calculate fluctuation index. Aridity index was used as an indicator of temperature and precipitation coupling. Climatic fluctuation index and reduction risk index were used to indicate the extent of soybean production affected by climate change. Although global warming is favorable for Hailun, the increasing uncertainty of precipitation distribution and aridity lead to the increased instability of soybean production. Climatic fluctuation index and aridity index were changing consistently, which indicate that soybean production was affected seriously by aridity. All of the years were divided into partial humid year, normal year and partial drought year. Climatic fluctuation index and yield reduction risk index were calculated for each type. The values are in descending order of partial drought year, partial humid year and normal year. The result suggests that soybean production in Hailun will be affected seriously due to global warming.

关 键 词：气候变化 水热耦合指数 气候波动指数 减产风险指数 海伦地区 

分 类 号：S565.1[农业科学—作物学]