2008年12月两次寒潮天气对比分析  

Comparative Analyses of Two Cold Wave Processes in December 2008

作　　者：陈豫英[1,2] 陈楠[1,2] 邵建 聂晶鑫 马金仁 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002 [2]宁夏气象台

出　　处：《气象》2009年第11期29-38,共10页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40965008);宁夏自然基金项目(NZ09200和NZ08158);中国气象局2009年重点工程建设项目"宁夏精细化气象要素预报业务系统"资助

摘　　要：利用常规天气资料和数值预报产品,应用天气分析和诊断分析方法,并结合宁夏寒潮预报系统的预报结果,对2008年12月2—4日和12月20—21日宁夏出现的两次典型寒潮天气过程进行对比分析,结果表明:两次过程均是在前期强烈升温的基础上,有强冷空气在西西伯利亚及贝加尔湖堆积并向南侵袭造成的;两次过程亚洲中高纬环流形势均表现为"一脊一槽"型,动力机制均为高空旋转低压槽与强锋区,促使寒潮爆发的流场均为"低槽旋转型";冷空气爆发后,宁夏上空均由强盛的冷平流控制,地面冷高压均进入关键区并达到寒潮强度;但由于寒潮发生的环流背景、影响系统及冷空气的强度、发展、移动路径不同,因此两次过程的降温幅度和对宁夏造成的影响也不同。在此基础上,总结出宁夏冬季寒潮天气的预报着眼点。Based on the daily observation data and numerical forecast products,two typical severe cold wave processes during 2-4 and 20-21,December 2008 have been analyzed,utilizing synoptic and diagnostic analyses and the forecasting result from the cold wave forecasting system of Ningxia.The results showed that,based on the warming strongly before the twice cold wave,strong cold air was accumulated in West Siberia and Baikal Lake and broke out southward;the circulation patterns showed a trough and a ridge at middle and high latitudes in Asia,dynamic mechanisms were an upper rotating low-pressure trough and strong front zone,and the stream fields leading to outbreak of cold wave were the low trough rotating pattern during twice cold wave;after the outbreak of cold air,strong cold advection controlled Ningxia and cold high pressure entered into the key areas and reached cold wave intensity.However because of the differences of circulation background,the weather impact system as well as the intensity,development and moving path of cold air currents,the cooling range and the impact on Ningxia of the two cold wave processes were different.The main forecast factors of winter cold wave in Ningxia were put forward based on the above analyses.

关 键 词：寒潮 天气分析 诊断分析 预报着眼点 

分 类 号：P458.122[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.6