三种大气可降水量推算方法结果的比较分析  

A Comparison and Analysis of the Results of Three Methods for the Calculation of Water Vapor Resources

作　　者：向玉春[1] 陈正洪[2] 徐桂荣[2] 陈波[2] 程亚平[3] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省人工影响天气办公室,武汉430074 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 [3]湖北省气象信息与技术保障中心

出　　处：《气象》2009年第11期48-54,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：<空中水汽资源气象评价方法>国家标准资助

摘　　要：以湖北省为例,分别用气象探空资料累加计算、地面气象资料推算(又有两种)、地基GPS探测资料反演等三种方法计算出该省空中水汽资源含量,并以探空法计算的水汽资源含量为基准来评估其他两种方法计算结果的偏差情况。结果表明:(1)与探空法计算结果相比,地面法计算结果偏小,恩施、宜昌、武汉等3站年平均空中水汽资源含量分别只偏小4.7%、2.9%、5.4%,且两种推算方法计算的月空中水汽资源含量变化趋势一致;(2)宜昌站GPS法比探空法计算结果偏大5.6%,同期地面法比探空法偏小3.5%;(3)对于有降水日的有效空中水汽资源,地面法、GPS法推算的整层水汽含量与探空法计算结果分别相差-1.4%和8.4%。可见地面法和GPS法推算空中水汽资源精度均比较高,可满足空中水汽资源推算要求,且站点多,从而可有效弥补探空站少的不足。总体上GPS法推算空中水汽资源精度略低于地面法,还可在今后应用中进一步订正优化。Taking Hubei Province for example,based on the surface meteorological data,GPS/Met data and radiosonde data,the water vapor resources are calculated.Furthermore,the deviation of the first two kinds of methods from the third is evaluated by setting the radiosonde result as standards.The results show that as follows.（1）The values of water vapor resources based on the surface data are slightly smaller than that on the radiosonde data,and the annual average values at Enshi,Yichang and Wuhan Stations are about 4.7%,2.9% and 5.4% less than those by radiosonde data,respectively.But their monthly change trends are coherent.（2）At Yichang Station the deviation value of the result based on GPS data is a little higher than that on surface data in the same period,and the water vapor content is 5.6% more than that on radiosonde data but the result on the surface data is 3.5% less than that on radiosonde data.（3）About the effective vapor water in precipitation days,the deviation values of the first two methods are respectively only-1.4% and 8.4%.Therefore the precision of the method based on surface data and GPS data are higher and they can make up for the lack of radiosonde stations due to the adequate surface stations.In the mass,the precision of the method based on GPS is slightly less than that on surface data and this inadequacy can be amended.

关 键 词：地面水汽压 GPS 气象探空 空中水汽资源 可降水量 计算方法 误差分析 

分 类 号：P426.61[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468.0