气候变化对贡嘎山森林原生演替影响的模拟研究  

Dynamic simulation of climate change impacts on forest primary succession in Gongga Mountain,southwestern China

作　　者：霍常富[1,2] 程根伟[1] 鲁旭阳[1] 范继辉[1] 肖飞鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所 [2]中国科学院研究生院

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2010年第1期1-6,共6页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40871042);"973"国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2005CB422005)

摘　　要：林窗模型是研究森林生态系统对全球气候变化响应的有效工具。应用贡嘎山森林演替模型(GFSM)模拟气候变化对贡嘎山东坡冰川退缩和泥石流迹地森林演替过程的影响,并根据IPCC第4次评估报告,选择最具代表性的3种气候变化情景(B1、A1B和A2),比较分析了不同情景下森林树种组成、优势树种径级结构和林地土壤碳氮动态特征。结果表明:维持目前气候状况不变时,贡嘎山东坡冰川退缩和泥石流形成的迹地,经过典型的川滇柳、冬瓜杨和桦树先锋群落演替阶段,最终将恢复为冷杉林。若气候变化情景(A1B和A2)发生,繁殖能力和耐性较强的树种,如高山松和桦树,可能取代喜冷湿环境的冷杉,成为这一地区的优势树种。届时,森林生物量和土壤碳氮含量将随优势树种的改变而下降。不同气候情景之间的模拟结果存在一定的差别,若B1情景发生,迹地还会恢复为冷杉林,但是其抗干扰能力和稳定性明显下降。总之,无论哪种气候情景发生,都将不利于冷杉林的恢复和更新。Forest gap model is an essential tool for accessing the potential responses of forest ecosystem to global climate change. GFSM （Gongga Forest Succession Model） is a gap model which has been previously validated along wide environmental gradients in Gongga Mountain,here we adopt it to predict the effects of future climate change on forest succession processes in slashes left by retreating glacier and debris flow on the eastern slope of the Gongga Mountain,southwestern China. In consistent with the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC,we selected three climate warming scenarios,temperature increasing by＋1.8℃ （B1）,＋2.8℃ （A1B） and＋3.4℃ （A2）,respectively,to determine the potential dynamics of forest tree species composition,diameter class distribution of the dominant species,and soil carbon and nitrogen contents. Our results show that under the current climate condition,the slashes would go through a typical forest succession process,namely the pioneer community composed of Salix hylonoma,Populus purdomii and Betula spp.,then finally recover to climax forest community with dominant species Abies fabri. However,if future climate changes to scenarios A1B or A2,the climax Abies forest is likely to be replaced by mixed Pinus densata and Betula spp. forest. These two species characterize with strong reproductive ability and stress tolerance. Simultaneously,forest biomass and soil carbon and nitrogen contents will decrease compared with that in Abies forest. Whereas under climate scenario B1,the forest succession will eventually reach to Abies forest,but the ecosystem stability will obviously decline. These results are very useful to us for improving natural forest reservation,sustainable management and restoration in southwestern China.

关 键 词：气候变化 森林动态 林窗模型 贡嘎山 西南森林 

分 类 号：S718.55[农业科学—林学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]