基于层次分析模型的北京雷电灾害风险评估  

AHP model-based risk assessment of lightning in Beijing

作　　者：扈海波[1] 王迎春[1] 熊亚军[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [2]北京市气象局气象台,北京100089

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2010年第1期104-109,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广项目"气象服务效益评估技术开发与应用(CMATG2007M14)";北京市科技计划项目"北京奥运会国际天气预报示范计划支持技术研究(Z0006279040191)"资助

摘　　要：城市气象灾害风险评估应用研究选用北京地区近10年的雷电监测资料,以区县行政区域为评估单元,利用层次分析模型评估各区县的雷电灾害风险。模型充分考虑了灾害冲击频次和城市社会经济组成结构等因素,拟定以"灾害历史发生频次、人口密度和人均GDP"等作为评估的主要指标,以此建立风险评估方程,划分风险等级。计算得出的风险估算值变化与该地区近10年中实际的雷电灾害发生频次的区县间的变化趋势大体一致。评估结果表明,北京雷电灾害除与自然闪电的空间分布有一定的关联外,还与下垫面易损特征及"承灾体"分布密切相关。评估结果的正确性也说明了评估方法的合理性。The application research on risk assessment of lightning disaster in Beijing was based on the data collected in recent 10 years, and the administrative regions （counties and districts） were taken as the basic units for assessment. The historical disaster frequency （HDF）, population density and GDP per capita were introduced as main assessment indices and the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was adopted to measure the weighing. The assessment result is approximately consistent with the real lightning frequency trend. It demonstrates that lightning in Beijing is relevant to the vulnerability of the underlaying surface and the distribution of hazard-affected body, besides the natural lightning distribution. Rationality and correctness of the assessment method are both well proved by the research.

关 键 词：层次分析模型 城市气象灾害 风险评估 雷电灾害 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]