湖南省能源消费与国民经济增长关系分析  

An Analysis of the Relationship between Energy Consumption and National Economic Growth in Hunan

作　　者：喻毅[1] 王鹏恭[1] 甘柳[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《商业经济》2010年第5期12-13,共2页Business & Economy

摘　　要：通过采用计量模型,选取相关数据,对湖南省经济增长与能源消费的关系进行实证研究发现,1980—2008年期间,每增加1%的能源消费,湖南省经济增长就增加2.66%,每增加1%的经济增长,湖南省能源消费就增加0.31%,即存在正向协整关系。说明能源消费和经济增长对彼此都有正向的促进作用。同时,经济增长和能源消费之间也存在着单向因果关系——经济增长会扩大对能源消费的需求。从趋势项的系数看,正确认识经济增长和和能源消费之间的关系,解决好经济增长和能源消费之间的矛盾,是目前乃至今后一段时期湖南经济工作的一个重点,也保持湖南经济又好又快发展的一项非常迫切的任务。Applying econometric model to choose relevant data, we study the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Hunan Province and find that, from 1980 to 2008, when energy consumption is increased 1%, the economic growth is increased 2.66%; when economic growth is increased 1%, energy consumption is increased 0.31%; i.e. there exists positive co-integration relationship. It means that energy consumption and economic growth can promote each other positively. At the same time, there exists unidirectional causation relationship： economic growth will increase demand to energy consumption. According to the factors of trend term, recognition on the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and solution on the contradiction between them are the focus of Hunan economy in current and future time, and also an urgent task of keeping Hunan economy sound and fast development.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整分析 GRANGER检验 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]