政策不确定条件下外资银行入股中资银行策略研究——基于客户信息甄别的视角  

The Study on Foreign Banks' Strategic Investment in China's Banks under Policy Uncertainty:Based on Loan Screening Perspective

作　　者：刘彬[1] 曾勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中大管理研究》2009年第4期123-142,共20页China Management Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70872016)

摘　　要：本文基于外资银行入股能够通过技术转让提高中资银行甄别技术的视角,在政策不确定性下运用实物期权方法建立了外资银行入股中资商业银行的模型。然后在有"学习效应"的情况下,得出外资银行努力程度将随着入股比例的上升而上升,随着政策出台时间增加而上升的结论。最后通过对比外资银行当前"少数股权"未来收购和未来直接收购两种策略,得出在中国市场迅速发展的情况下,外资银行倾向于当前阶段接受中资银行"少数股权"并进行技术转让的策略,印证了现实情况的观察。Based on China＇s banks can raise their screen capacity after foreign banks becoming a shareholder and transferring technology by their effort, this model establishes foreign banks＇ strategic investment in China＇s banks under policy uncertainty using a real option approach. Under the hypothesis of learning effect, we find that the level of foreign bank＇s effort is increasing with its equity and the expected time of policy coming out. In the end, we come to the conclusion that foreign bank is inclined to buy ＂minority interest＇ of China bank and transfer its screening technology under the rapid development of China＇s economy by comparing the buying ＇minority interest＇ at present and acquiring the whole China bank in the future, just like what we find in reality.

关 键 词：外资银行 甄别技术 政策不确定性 学习效应 实物期权 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]