改进灰色模型在电力负荷中的预测分析及实现  

Prediction and implementation of the improvement grey model to electrical load

作　　者：任工昌[1] 刘丽[1] 苗新强[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西科技大学机电工程学院,西安710021

出　　处：《机械设计与制造》2010年第2期232-234,共3页Machinery Design & Manufacture

基　　金：陕西省教育厅产业化培育项目(07JC05);咸阳市科技计划项目(XK0708-6)

摘　　要：深入研究了基于灰色系统理论的电力负荷预测方法,剖析了灰色预测GM(1,1)模型应用的局限性及其改进方法,在对原始数据序列进行插值平滑处理的基础上建立了等维新信息灰色预测模型,并用此方法对某地区的电力负荷进行预测分析,结果表明:模型精度较高,预测误差较小,该方法可以作为电力负荷预测的理想工具。In order to forecast electrical load different methods have been put forward,in which the forecasting method based on grey system theory is wildly applied in recent years due to its outstanding ad- vantage. It the limitation of formerly electrical load forecasting method based on grey system theory is ana- lyzed. The new information and equal dimensional mode is built based on the interposal to original data in order to improve its＇ smooth. Through the application of this model to electrical load forecasting in some place,it shows that the method is more accurate. This method can be recognized as an ideal tool to electrical load forecasting.

关 键 词：电力负荷预测 灰色系统 改进灰色预测模型 等维新息模型 

分 类 号：TH12[机械工程—机械设计及理论] TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]