水电工程EPC项目总承包商风险分析与综合评价  

Risk analysis and comprehensive evaluation of risks in EPC hydropower engineering

作　　者：刘东海[1] 宋洪兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2010年第1期74-76,共3页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50709024)

摘　　要：针对水电EPC总承包项目的特点,从总承包商角度出发,构建了水电EPC项目总承包商风险指标体系,分析了其特有风险。在此基础上,提出了基于熵权的风险综合评价方法,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合,度量了体系中风险因素的相对重要性,据此对风险因素进行排序,找出最不利的风险因素,从而为总承包商采取相应的风险防范措施提供依据。According to EPC characteristics,this paper developed a risk index system of EPC hydropower engineering,ineluding all risks faced by general contractor.Meanwhile, the special risks of EPC hydropower engineering were analyzed in details.With the system,risk comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy-weight was put forward.By using both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, Relative importance of all risks in this index system were measured.All the risks were ranked according to relative importance, and most unfavorable risks were found.Thus the results provides theoretical basis on taking corresponding precautions for general contractor.

关 键 词：水电工程 EPC总承包 风险分析 综合评价 熵权 

分 类 号：TB114.2[理学—运筹学与控制论]