基于瓦斯涌出时间序列的煤与瓦斯突出预报  

Forecast of coal and gas outburst based on time series of gas concentration

作　　者：邓明[1,2] 张国枢[1] 陈清华[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学煤矿安全高效开采省部共建教育部重点实验室,安徽淮南232001 [2]阜阳师范学院计算机与信息学院,安徽阜阳236041

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2010年第2期260-263,共4页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金：安徽省高校科技创新团队计划资助项目(2006KJ005TD);安徽省教育厅自然科学基金资助项目(KJ2009B008)

摘　　要：通过对工作面突出前夕瓦斯涌出浓度时间序列(简称G序列)的分析,提出了利用股市技术分析方法进行突出预报,以山西晋城寺河煤矿"5.20"突出事故监测数据为基础,绘制了工作面G序列K线图。研究表明:正常生产时期,K线实体很小,为小K线或十字线,近似一条平稳水平线;突出前夕,G序列K线整体上呈上扬趋势,阳阴实体明显变大,K线上升过程中多次出现"三阳线"(中阳或大阳线)连拉,表现为一种脉冲信号。根据K线上述变化特征可实现突出预报。By studying the time series of gas emission concentration before coal and gas outburst, the stock market the- ory was proposed to forecast coal and gas outburst. Based on the data of ＂5 · 20＂coal and gas outburst of Sihe Coal Mine in Jincheng, the K line charts for time series of gas emission concentration, named as G series in short, were drawn. The results indicate that the K line is acted as little K line or cross line with little variance at normal production periods. Before outburst, the K line has an ascending trend, its bodies become large, and ＂three-positive line＂ fre- quently appears, which exhibits pulse signals. The research results can be selected as the precursors to forecast coal and gas outburst.

关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 预报 瓦斯涌出浓度 股市技术分析 K线图 

分 类 号：TD712.5[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]