一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报系统的建立与应用  

A numerical forecast system for typhoon storm surge over China coast.

作　　者：李永平[1] 于润玲[1] 郑运霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所,中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室,上海200030

出　　处：《气象学报》2009年第5期884-891,共8页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：上海市科委“登山行动计划”项目(06DZ12011);上海市气象局专项(YJ200804)

摘　　要：依据三维斜压海洋环流模式POM建立了一个中国沿岸台风风暴潮数值预报业务系统。台风风场模型考虑了台风移动和周围环境风场的影响,采用了较合理的强风情况下的风应力计算公式,建立了稳定合理的模式海洋环流气候状态和模式边界条件。大量的数值模拟结果表明,该模式能较好地重现历史台风风暴增水过程,对近2年台风风暴潮个例的预报结果表明,该业务系统对台风风暴增水具有较好的预报能力,文章同时分析了模式存在的一些问题。该业务系统实现了从资料采集、模式运行到预报结果输出的全自动化,显示采用图片和MICAPS两种方式,后者与现有气象业务平台一致。A numerical forecast system for typhoon storm surge over China coast is develope dbased on the threedimensional baroclinic ocean circulation model of POM （Pri nceton Ocean Model）. As the forced field, the forecasting wind field of typhoo nover sea surface is constructed by a model developed by Shanghai Typhoon Insti tute. The effect of typhoon motion and the environmental wind field are consider ed and a more reasonable formula of wind stress under strong wind is applied. By numerical simulations with more than 37 typhoon storm surge processes over Chin a coast, it can be concluded that it works well to recur the storm surge elevati on of observations. The average errors between the simulated and observations are 17, 21 and 25 cm for whole process, within 10 h around the maximum water risin g and at the maximum water rising time respectively. The time for maximum sea le vel increment appearing in simulation is basically consisted with the observatio ns and the average error is about 1 h. Generally the maximum sea level increment of simulation is smaller than observations especially in the condition of much strong storm surges with more than 200 cm sea level increment. For the process w ith double-peak structure, only the larger one is well simulated, although some times the smaller one exists in the simulation. Because of the relatively short simulation period, the value of simulation is a little small during forerunner c onsidering the case that surge has already get rise at the beginning of the simu lation, but it usually works well only if the time span of forerunner is not too short. According to the model result in recent 2 years, it is found that this o perational system can accurately predict the storm surge. An automatic manage pr ocess is build from data acquisition to model running and results output. The ou tput is displayed both in the form of MICAPS （Meteorological Information Compreh ensive Analysis and Process System）, which is as the meteorological operation pl atform, and pictures whic

关 键 词：POM 台风风场 风暴增水 数值预报 业务系统 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P435