黄河河源区径流对气候变化的敏感性分析  

Sensibility Analysis of the Runoff in the Headwater Regions of the Yellow River to Climate Change

作　　者：蓝永超[1,2,3] 文军[2] 赵国辉[2] 沈永平[2] 胡兴林[1,4] 畅俊杰[3] 马建华[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文与流域科学重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [3]黄河水利委员会河源区研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [4]甘肃省水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2010年第1期175-182,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-328);国家自然科学基金重点项目(90702001);国家自然科学基金项目(931468093)资助

摘　　要：利用黄河源区有关水文、气象台站观测资料,对河源区各分区气候变化特征及各分区径流深对气候变化的敏感性进行了分析.结果表明:有器测资料以来的近50a间,河源区气温与全球变暖有着较好的对应关系,各区平均气温均呈不同程度的波动上升态势;而降水量的变化比较复杂,区域性差异较大;河源区径流的变化与降水量、气温的变化之间存在较显著的非线性关系.由于气温的持续上升与主要产流区降水的持续减少,区域径流量呈持续减少的趋势.总体上,河源区各分区径流对降水变化的敏感程度要强于气温,但吉迈以上区域径流对气温变化的敏感性要强于其下游其它两个区域.Sensibility of the runoff to climate change in the headwate regions of Yellow River is analyzed based on the measured data from the hydrological and weather stations in the regions from 1959 to 2008. The results indicate that variations of temperatures in the regions had an obvious relation with global warming and the temperatures in various subregions had been oscillating with a rising trend in the 50 a. However, the variations of precipitation in the regions were more intricate than temperatures because of the influences of geographical position and environment in various subregions, and the variations of annual precipitation in the main runoff-producing area had been oscilla ting with a decreasing trend in the same period. There is a remarkable nonlinear correlativity between runoff and precipitation and temperature in the regions. The runoff has decreased continually since the end of the 1980s, because of the precipitation decreasing in the main runoff-producing area in the region and temperature rising in the region. As a whole, the runoff in all subregions of the headwater regions of Yellow River is quite sensitive to precipitation variation. Furthermore, the runoff in the subregions above Jimai is more sensitive to the temperature variation than that in the other two subregions below Jimai.

关 键 词：黄河河源区 径流深 降水量 气温 全球变暖 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]