运用马尔科夫链对我国霍乱发病率的预测  

FORECASTING OF THE INCIDENCE OF CHOLERA WITH MARKOV CHAIN

作　　者：赵亮[1] 吴艳乔[2] 彭丹[1] 江国帼[1] 雷海科[1] 张俊清[1] 陈博[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院,成都610041 [2]四川大学华西妇女儿童医院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2010年第5期809-810,823,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]通过马尔科夫链对中国霍乱发病率进行预测,为卫生部门防治霍乱提供依据。[方法]利用中国1975～2007年霍乱发病率的数据及马尔科夫状态转移矩阵对霍乱发病率进行预测评价。[结果]发现和以往相比,中国目前的霍乱发病率处在较低的水平。[结论]卫生部门应该保持现有工作力度,积极防控霍乱。[Objective] Through the Markov chain to predict the incidence of cholera in China in order to provide the basis for the health department to prevent and treat cholera.[Methods] Used the incidence of cholera of 1975-2007 data in China and to predict the incidence of cholera with Markov state transit matrix.[Results] We found the incidence of cholera in China was in lower level than before.[Conclusion] Health department should maintain the current efforts,positively prevent and control the cholera.

关 键 词：马尔科夫链 霍乱 发病率 

分 类 号：R516.5[医药卫生—内科学]