苏州市水资源承载力研究  

Modeling of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Suzhou City

作　　者：程莉[1] 汪德爟[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学力学与材料学院水力学与流体力学中心,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水文》2010年第1期47-50,55,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50638020)

摘　　要：基于苏州市水资源现状，从维持和保护河网生态系统正常的基本功能角度出发，在保证生态环境需水的条件下，构建了水资源与社会、经济、生态环境相联系的苏州市水资源承载力系统动力学模型。以社会经济指标为表征，分别在不同水资源方案（现状延续型、节水型、开源型3种方案）下，依据“以供定需”原则，模拟了2001-2030年苏州市水资源承载力的动态变化，得出不同水平年苏州市水资源承栽能力，据此寻求提高苏州市水资源承载力的途径。结果表明，节水措施对水资源承载力影响大，是提高水资源承载力的有力措施。Based on the current situation of water resources in Suzhou City and aiming to maintain and protect the normal basic functions of river net eco-system, a dynamic model related with water resources, society, economy and ecosystem was established to evaluate water resources carrying capacity in Suzhou City by ensuring eco-environmental water demand. Characterizing with the factor of social economy, the dynamic variations of the water resources carrying capacity in Suzhou was simulated with the rule of ＂Demand is based on Supplying＂ for the time period from 2001 to 2030 under the conditions of different water resources schemes （Type Ⅰ ： remaining current water utilization ; Type Ⅱ： water conservation; Type Ⅲ： water exploitation）. The corresponding water resources carrying capacity over years was calculated out by the model, and proper ways to improve the carrying capacity were consequently proposed. The research results in this paper show that the water conservation policy can highly affect water resources carrying capacity and be an efficient approach to improve the capacity.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 系统动力学 生态环境需水 苏州 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]