不同大气污染物监测密度对CMAQ源同化修正效果影响的模拟  

Simulation of Impact of Different Pollutant Observation Information on Assimilated Emission of CMAQ

作　　者：程兴宏[1,2] 徐祥德[1] 丁国安[1] 李德平[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]北京市观象台,北京100089

出　　处：《高原气象》2010年第1期222-229,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划973项目(G1999045700);中日政府间JICA渠道技术合作专项技术合作项目资助

摘　　要：采用(美国环保部的MODEL-3系统的)CMAQ源同化模型及4种不同空间分辨率的SO2、NO2实测资料,反演得到中国不同尺度的同化修正排放源,利用新一代中尺度气象模式WRF与多尺度空气质量模式CMAQ,模拟分析了中国不同观测信息密度对SO2、NO2源同化反演及其浓度预报的影响,重点分析了华北地区SO2、NO2浓度加密观测对改善SO2、NO2排放源和空气质量预报的重要影响。结果表明,采用不同分辨率的实测资料时,SO2、NO2的趋势预报效果改善程度有一定差异;采用较高分辨率的实测资料进行SO2、NO2源同化修正时,可明显减小SO2、NO2浓度的预报误差。华北地区较高分辨率的观测信息对于改进源同化修正效果及SO2、NO2浓度的趋势预报十分重要,尤其是对SO2浓度的预报尤为重要;采用经高分辨率的实测资料同化修正的排放源时,WRF-CMAQ模式对北京城市尺度SO2、NO2浓度的变化趋势、浓度水平和空间分布特征具有较好的预报效果。高分辨率的观测资料和区域源同化反演方法对于区域污染物浓度预报及排放源清单具有显著的改进作用。Assimilated emissions with different spatial scales are retrieved using a nudging-based in approach coupled with CMAQ model based on the observed data of SO2 and NO2 concen trations with four different resolutions over China. The scale impact characteristics of space resolution of observation stations at which SO2 and NO2 concentration are sampled on correction effect of a nudgingbased inverse model and the level of air quality forecasts was simulated by WRF and CMAQ model. The important effect of the observed data of SO2 and NO2 concentration with higher resolution in North China on correction effect of inverse model and improving of the level of air quality forecast was analyzed emphatically. The result showed that the forecasting error of SO2 and NO2 concentration can be reduced effectively by the inverse model based on the observed data with higher resolution. The observed data with higher resolution in North China is extremely significant for inversing and correction of emissions and improvement of predictions of SO2 and NO2 concentration, especially for the forecast of SO2 concentration. Remarkable improvement of predictions of SO2 and NO2 concentration simulated by WRF--CMAQ model are also seen at five monitoring sites in Beijing using the assimilated emissions retrieved based on the observed data with higher resolution.

关 键 词：华北地区 SO2和NO2浓度 观测信息空间密度 CMAQ源同化模型 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]