经济增长与收入分配不平等的倒U型多拐点测度研究  

Inverted U-curve with Multi-inflexions for Economic Growth and Inequality of Income Distribution

作　　者：许冰[1] 章上峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学数量经济研究所

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2010年第2期54-64,共11页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70671093);国家社会科学基金项目(09CTJ005);浙江工商大学基金前期项目(X09 -15)资助

摘　　要：传统计量模型刻画的倒U型曲线没有拐点或者仅有一个拐点,难以测度经济转型时期中国倒U型曲线存在多个拐点的情况。本文利用非参数局部多项式估计方法,测度经济增长与收入分配不平等的多拐点倒U型曲线。研究发现,中国的收入分配不平等曲线存在三个拐点:经历了凹性的快速上升到凸性的减速上升,然后又到凹性的快速上升最后到凸性的减速上升"过山车"模式。目前处于倒U型的左半部分,上升速度明显减缓。进一步,利用省际面板数据预测得到,中国倒U型曲线将出现两个转折点,收入分配不平等在2010年后将趋于平稳,2015年后将趋于缩小。In this paper, non-parametric local polynomial estimation method is applied to measure the economic growth and inequality of income distribution for the inverted U-shaped curve with multi-inflexion points. The study find. there are three inflexion points in China＇s inverted U-shaped curve, which come through the ＂ roller coaster＂ pattern.. From the rapid rise of the concavity to the slow rise of convexity, and again from the rapid rise of the concavity to the deceleration of the convexity finally. Currently, the curve is in the left part of the inverted U-shaped, with the ascending speed slowed down significantly. Further, China＇s inverted U- shaped curve will occur two turning points based on the results of interprovincial panel data. The inequality of income distribution will tend to be stable after 2010 and will tend to shrink after 2015.

关 键 词：收入分配不平等 倒U型假说 局部多项式估计 多拐点 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]