论气象灾害综合风险防范模式——2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害的反思  

Integrated Risk Governance Paradigm for Meteorological Disasters:Thoughts on the Low-temperature Freezing Rain and Snow Disaster in Southern China of 2008

作　　者：胡爱军[1,2] 李宁[1] 祝燕德 吴吉东[1] 郭海峰 李春华[3] 

机构地区：[1]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学 [2]湖南省气象局,北京100875 [3]中南林业科技大学,长沙410007

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2010年第2期159-165,共7页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAK50B08;2006BAD20B01);国家自然科学基金项目(40771008)

摘　　要：2008年初我国南方遭受特大低温雨雪冰冻灾害,并造成了重大损失。基于媒体发布的气象预报信息和灾情数据,从综合风险防范的角度深入分析了此次灾害应急中暴露出的问题,主要包括气象灾害应急社会联动机制不完善、电力和交通部门应急响应滞后、气象灾害综合风险影响评估缺位、政府与民众之间的风险沟通不足等;同时提出了气象灾害综合风险链的概念,认为气象灾害作为致灾因子可能引发一系列灾害,在自然和人文因素的相互作用下形成综合风险链,具有很大的危害性。最后,从灾害过程的角度构建了气象灾害综合风险防范模式,认为当前特别要加强气象灾害综合风险评估,建立应急处置社会联动机制,风险沟通贯穿整个综合风险防范过程。Most provinces in southern China suffered from low-temperature freezing rain and snow disaster at the beginning of 2008. Based on the data about the situation of the disaster reported by newspapers and weather forecast information of Hunan province,the paper thoroughly analyzes many problems in the meteorological disasters emergency responses,including the faultiness of meteorological disasters emergency response mechanism,the absence of meteorological disaster integrated risk appraisal,and the failure of risk communication. And then we bring forward the concept of ＂Meteorological Disaster Integrated Risk＂ as an indicator factor,to reflect meteorological disasters in many integrated risk chains in terms of the interaction between natural and human dimensions. Finally,we establish a meteorological disaster integrated risk governance paradigm according to disaster processes. It is important to improve meteorological disaster integrated risk appraisals and to constitute an emergency disposition of social linkage mechanism based on effective risk communication mechanism.

关 键 词：低温雨雪冰冻灾害 综合风险 应急响应 风险防范模式 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]