基于系统动力学的环境承载力仿真与调控  

Simulation and Adjustment of Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：陈永霞[1] 薛惠锋[1] 王媛媛[1] 解丹蕊[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学自动化学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2010年第2期294-298,共5页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：环境承载力是区域环境系统结构与区域社会经济活动适宜程度的一种表示。环境承载研究很重要。为使陕西省经济发展与环境保护相协调,优化陕西省环境承载能力,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,通过建立系统动力学模型,仿真陕西省中长期(2007-2020年)不同发展策略下各指标数值,并采用综合评价方法计算不同策略下环境承载力的值,最终得出承载状态(超载、满载、可载)。仿真结果表明基于系统动力学的环境承载力模型能够动态仿真现实的环境承载力;研究结果可为陕西省发展规划的制定提供一定的理论依据。Environmental bearing capacity is an appropriate degree of the structure of environment system and socio - economic activities. In order to harmonize the economic development and environmental protection and optimize the carrying capacity of the environment in Shaanxi Province, this research adopts a combination of stable and rational methods, through building models based on systematic dynamics, simulate a series of indexes of different developing tactics for Shannxi Province in mid - long term （2007 - 2020） , to measure the capability of each tactic in different solutions. An estimation is made based on synthesis of the data, and it concludes the state of capability （ over loading, full, vacancy）. The simulation results show that the model based on SD of the environmental carrying capacity agree with actual stale. The results provide a theoretical basis for the development of Shanxi Province plans.

关 键 词：环境承载力 系统动力学 综合评价法 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]