物流需求灰色预测及其实证分析  

Forecast and Analysis of Logistics Requirement Based on Grey Model

作　　者：张潜[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学商学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第1期84-89,共6页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：霍英东教育基金会第十届高等院校优选资助课题(104009)

摘　　要：物流需求涉及仓储、运输、配送、流通加工等物流业务的运作规模,以及行业、区域等范围的物流规模等内容,其预测具有复杂性,一般性预测方法往往因考虑因素较少或因素间的相互关联程度处理较为简单,很难满足物流需求内容的要求,需要寻求应用新的预测方法。针对航空物流领域的特点,在总结物流需求预测方法的基础上,提出了依据航空物流基地货运量构建航空物流基地的物流需求的灰色预测模型,并应用该模型对某省未来工业航空物流量进行预测。同时,为验证预测方法的可行性,结合福建省的物流规模状况,建立灰色需求GM预测模型,通过实证分析对预测结果进行了检验,证明了灰色预测方法在物流需求量预测方法的有效性。Logistics needs deal with warehouse, transportation, distribution and other processes, and its prediction is comprehensive and complex in the scopes of business. It is difficult for general prediction methods to meet logistics needs which are more complex and it is necessary to look for the new prediction methods because of its less - considered factors, Based on the products of air base, this paper proposes the grey model for the prediction of logistics needs, which is applied to the prediction of certain aviation industry logistics amount. The grey model on forecast is given according to logistics amount in Fujian province to be tested, and the prediction results are effective.

关 键 词：航空物流 灰色预测 实证分析 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]