基于灰色理论的隧洞变形预测  

Deformation Forcasting of Tunnle Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：何伟[1] 袁继国[1] 赵志强[1] 袁远[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学岩土工程研究所,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2010年第1期127-128,163,共3页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

摘　　要：隧洞的拱顶沉降和变形是隧洞施工中至关重要的问题之一,是确保安全施工、确定支护方案和支护时机的重要因素。运用灰色理论系统中的GM(1,1)预测模型,对拱顶的沉降值进行了有效的预测分析。获得了理想的沉降预测值,为隧洞的安全评判、支护方式的选取和时机的确定提供可靠的参考依据。分析表明,应用该方法分析预测有较高的预测精度,接近真实值,证实了灰色预测模型在变形预测中的可靠性和可行性。Vault settlement-deformation is one of the vital important problems in the construction of a tunnel,and is an important factor that makes sure the construction safety,shoring plans and shoring time.In the article,the vault settlement in a tunnel is forecasted and analyzed effectively by application of GM（1,1） forecasting model of the grey system theory.The results indicate that by using this method in the analyzing and forecasting,a higher accuracy and closer value to the reality one could be obtained,so as to confirm the reliability and feasibility of the grey forecasting model in deformation forecasting.

关 键 词：灰色理论 隧洞变形 预测模型 预测精度 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学] TV554[水利工程—水利水电工程]