我国石油进口安全及国际合作潜力  

China's Oil Import Security and International Cooperation Potential

作　　者：任忠宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国国土资源经济研究院,北京101149

出　　处：《天然气技术》2010年第1期9-12,共4页NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGY

摘　　要：阐述了当前世界石油贸易格局,利用回归分析方法对我国石油供需缺口进行了预测,结果显示,我国2010年石油供需缺口为2.33×108t,对外依存度达54%;在充分借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,从地缘政治格局、市场垄断性、进口集中度、油价波动和进口运输安全5个方面对我国石油进口安全性进行了分析,认为我国石油进口安全不容乐观;选取石油储量、产量、出口量和出口中国量4个指标变量,对19个石油资源国合作潜力进行聚类分析,确定今后我国获取海外石油的重点合作对象;提出了保障石油进口安全的相关政策建议,如健全石油储备机制,采取多种方式参与国际合作,实现进口来源多元化。Article discussed the current world petroleumt rade pattern and predicted China's oil supply and demand gap bym eans of regression analysis.The results showed that China's oils upply and demand gap will be 2.33×10 8 t and the foreign dependency rate will be 54%in 2010.Furthermore,the conclusion thatC hina’s oil import security is not optimistic can be reached afterw e analyzed the safety of China's oil imports from the geo-politicals ituation,market monopoly,import concentration,oil prices fluctuating and import transport safety,making full use of existing research base and drawing on the basis of previous studies.The keyp artners of overseas oil has been identified by cluster analyzing cooperative potential of 19 petroleum resources counties according to4 target variable:Oil reserves,production,export volume and export volume of China.Finally,the article put forward relevant policy recommendations for the petroleum import security.The oil reserve mechanism should be perfected.We should take a variety ofw ays to participate in international cooperation to achieve diversification of import sources.

关 键 词：石油 进口安全 国际合作 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61