东江流域博罗站天然年径流量序列多时间尺度分析  

Multiple Time Scale Analysis of Natural Annual Runoff Series at the Boluo Station in the Dongjiang River Basin

作　　者：王兆礼[1,2] 陈晓宏[3] 杨涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510640 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [3]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州510275

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2010年第2期21-24,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50839005);河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(2008490511)联合资助

摘　　要：采用Morlet小波函数,对东江流域博罗站1956-2005年天然年径流时间序列进行了小波分析,揭示了流域天然年径流变化的多时间尺度的复杂结构,分析了不同时间尺度下天然年径流序列变化的周斯,并根据主周期对未来序列变化进行了预测。研究结果表明,天然年径流序列呈现微弱的减少趋势,21 615万m3/(10 a),近50年天然年径流量减少了约108 075万m3;天然年径流量变化的特征时间尺度为2年、4年、8年、12年、19年,其中8年左右的周期振荡最强,为天然年径流量变化主周期;依据主周期的变化趋势,预测2006-2009年间天然年径流将偏多,大约在2010-2013年天然年径流将偏少。Based on natural monthly and annual runoff data from 1956 to 2005 of Boluo Hydrological Station, the multi-time scale characteristics of annual runoff in the past 50 years in the Dongjiang River Basin are analyzed by using Morlet wavelet analysis in this paper. The periodic oscillation of annual runoff variation and the points of abrupt change at different time scales along the time series are discovered and the main periods of runoff serial are confirmed. The results show that the distribution of annual runoff in the Dongjiang River Basin there are obvious periodic oscillation of 8 a, 12 a and 2 a for the natural annual runoff series. The multi-time scale characteristics of time-frequency for wavelet analysis can demonstrate the detailed structures of annual runoff variations. Runoff trend analysis shows that the annual runoff will be in a relative wet period of 4 years after 2005. The wavelet analysis can be an alternative approach to analyzing runoff multi-time scale characteristics and forecast short-term runoff variations.

关 键 词：天然年径流 多时间尺度 小波分析 东江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]