云南省水资源可持续承载力研究  

Research on sustainable carrying capacity of water resources in Yunnan Province

作　　者：张先起[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院水利学院,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《人民长江》2010年第3期48-51,74,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：河南省基础与前沿技术研究计划项目(082300460030)

摘　　要：为保障社会、经济和生态环境的持续协调发展,合理开发、利用水资源,必须进行水资源的可持续承载能力研究。基于水资源承载力结构的大系统特性,以及云南省水资源、社会经济、生态环境协调发展具体状况,构建了云南省水资源可持续承载力研究的PGESH模型。对云南省在2000、2010、2020、2030年水资源可持续承载力状况进行了分析和预测。结果表明:云南省水资源可持续承载力在2030年以前均为可承载范围,但正在向不可承载恶化发展。In order to safeguard the sustainable and coordinate development of society,economy and ecological environment,protect and utilize water resources reasonably,the sustainable carrying capacity of water resources should be researched.Based on the structure of water resources carrying capacity system,as well as the specific conditions of water resources and socio-economic,ecological,environmental development in Yunnan Province,the sustainable carrying capacity of water resources model based on GPESH in Yunnan Province is built.The status of water resources carrying capacity in 2000,2010,2020,2030 in Yunnan Province is analyzed and forecasted,and the results show that water resources carrying capacity in Yunnan Province can meet the requirement of socio-economic,ecological,environmental development before 2030,however,the situation of water resources is getting worse.

关 键 词：水资源 承载力 协调 模型 云南省 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]