新准则下中国财产保险公司偿付能力实证研究——基于Logistic模型的预测分析  

Empirical Research on the Solvency of Property Insurance Companies of China under New Guideline——Predictive Analysis Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：彭晓博[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《保险职业学院学报》2010年第1期14-18,共5页Journal of Insurance Professional College

摘　　要：本文以新会计准则的实施和保险公司新的偿付能力监管规定的出台为背景,进行财产保险公司偿付能力实证研究。文章采用的实证方法为Logistic回归和灰色关联分析,其中Logistic回归分析保险公司财务指标对财务困境的影响,灰色关联分析宏观经济指标中的平均实际利率、GDP增长率和通货膨胀率对保险公司偿付能力充足率的影响。This paper takes the effect of New Accounting Standard and the New Supervision Regulations on Insurer＇ s Solvency, as an opportunity to carry out the empirical studies of general insurers＇ solvency of our country. Logistic Regression and Gray Correlation analysis are the empirical methods. It uses logistic Regression to analyze financial indicators＇ influence on insurer＇ financial distress, the Gray Correlation analysis to demonstrate the impact of average real interest rates, GDP growth rate and inflation on insures＇ solvency adequacy ratio.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC回归 灰色关联分析 财务困境 偿付能力充足率 

分 类 号：F84[经济管理—保险]