基于多智能体建模的经济–电力动态模拟系统  

Dynamic Economy and Power Simulation System Based on Multi-agent Modelling

作　　者：田建伟[1] 胡兆光 吴俊勇[1] 肖潇[3] 徐敏杰 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京市海淀区100044 [2]国网北京能源研究院,北京市宣武区100052 [3]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2010年第7期85-91,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：美国能源基金会项目(G-0601-08211)~~

摘　　要：运用多智能体(multi-agent)建模方法构建了行业、市场、政府、居民4类智能体,并进行经济–电力动态模拟系统的机制设计。通过智能体的协作与交互模拟经济个体行为的变化,从而模拟宏观政策对经济及电力需求的影响。系统采用半开放式设计,必要时专家可以将自己的智能赋予开放式智能体(open-agent),提高了有关智能体(agent)的智能性。针对国际金融危机对2008年中国经济及电力需求的影响进行模拟,结果表明所构建的模型充分反映了宏观政策和电力需求的关系。因此,给决策者提供了一个有效的经济–电力政策分析工具。Multi-agent modelling method is used to establish four categories＇ agent, i.e., industry agent, market agent, government agent and resident agent, and mechanism is designed to develop dynamic economy and power simulation system. This study simulates the impact of policies on the fluctuation of economy and power demand through simulating the changes of economic individuals by cooperation and interaction among related agents. With the semi-open design, expert is able to endow his intelligence with open-agent whenever necessary, which enhances the intelligence of agent involved. Finally, by simulating the influence of economy and power demand accrued by international finance crisis in 2008, the result obtained shows that the proposed model sufficiently reflects the relationship between policy and power demand. Therefore, it provides an effective tool to analyze economy and electric power for decision maker.

关 键 词：多智能体 经济-电力 动态 模拟系统 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F224-3[经济管理—国民经济]