基于空间Logistic和Markov模型集成的区域土地利用演化方法研究  

Research on the Method of Regional Land Use Evolution Based on the Combination of Spatial Logistic Model and Markov Model

作　　者：罗平[1] 姜仁荣[1,2] 李红旮[2] 章欣欣[2] 黄波[3] 向前[2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市国土房产评估发展中心,广东深圳518034 [2]中国科学院遥感应用研究所,北京100101 [3]香港中文大学地理与资源管理系

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2010年第1期31-36,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：国土资源部百名优秀青年科技人才计划科技项目"城市土地利用预警体系及政策虚拟实验室建设"

摘　　要：研究目的:以深圳市为对象定量研究区域土地利用演化方法。研究方法:文献资料法,空间Logistic模型和Markov模型,实证分析法。研究结果:(1)空间Logistic和Markov模型集成可提升单一模型的应用能力,宏观上利用Markov Chain进行土地利用规模总量预测,微观上利用多分类Multinomial Logistic模型解决分类变量与连续变量,定性变量和定量变量的联合解算提高空间回归精度,同时可以确定每一个土地利用单元转移概率,实现土地利用空间分布的预测;(2)基于集成模型开发出的应用系统能够有效仿真和预测深圳市土地利用演化,通过验证系统预测精度能够满足近期土地利用预警和年度土地供应计划编制。研究结论:空间Logistic和Markov的集成模型是研究区域近期土地利用演化的有效方法。The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively explore the method of regional land use evolution in Shenzhen City.Methods employed include documentation,Markov model,spatial logistic model and case analysis.The results indicated：（1）the combination of the Markov and spatial logistic models can improve the predictability of each model individually.In macroscopic scale,the total land use amount can be predicted via Markov chain;in microscopic scale,the multi-class multinomial logistic model can be used to implement the combined calculations of categorical variable and continuous variable,qualitative variable and quantitative variable to improve the precision of spatial regression.Meanwhile,the transition probability of each land use unit will be confirmed and the prediction of land use spatial distribution will also be completed.（2）the application system developed in accordance with the integrated model can effectively simulate and predict the land use evolution in Shenzhen City,and the prediction precision of verification system will suffice for recent land use monitoring and the making of annual land supply planning.It is concluded that the combination of spatial logistic model and Markov model is an effective method for the researches on regional land use evolution.

关 键 词：土地科学研究方法 土地利用演化 空间Multinomial LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]