船舶溢油事故报告选择概率预测研究  

Forecast of Accident Report Choice Probability in Ship Oil-spill Emergency

作　　者：张欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海200135

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2010年第2期197-204,共8页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70673060)

摘　　要：事故报告是整个船舶溢油应急过程的触发点,具有关键作用。实际情况中,事故船方常常存在瞒报、不报或不及时报告的情况,导致溢油危害升级。本文旨在探索事故船方在进行事故报告时的选择过程和影响因素,通过对上海、宁波、舟山、大连、天津、厦门六个城市207名海上船舶作业人员的问卷调查,利用离散选择模型得到了影响船方事故报告选择的主要因素,并对其选择概率进行了预测。As a trigger for the whole procedure to meet emergency, choosing or not choosing to report when a ship oil-spill accident happened is critical. In practice, ships causing accident often choose not to report or not to report at once, which will leads more serious risk and damage. The thesis of this paper is to analysis the decision process of accident report choice. Based on data collected from 207 pieces of questionnaire of sea vessel crew in six cities including Shanghai Zhoushang Daliang Tianjing and Xiameng, this paper calculates utility function of each choice with discrete choice model. Through the study major factors affecting accident report choice and its choosing probability are obtained.

关 键 词：离散选择模型 选择概率 船舶溢油 决策 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]