公交车中途停靠站长度预测方法研究  

Bus Stop Distance Prediction Method

作　　者：黄斌[1] 李伟[1] 杨天军[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市城市规划设计研究院,北京100045 [2]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《交通标准化》2010年第3期89-92,共4页Communications Standardization

摘　　要：根据车辆泊松到达分布,运用概率分布与数理统计方法,分析公交线路条数、发车频率以及到达公交车中途停靠站时间分布之间的关系,建立同时到达车辆数概率模型,据此确定某一概率水平下公交车中途停靠站设计停车位数量及车站长度。以北京菜市口公交车中途停靠站为例,运用模型进行演算,并与实际观测值进行对比验证,提出将公交车中途停靠站向交叉口靠近从而方便换乘的改善方案。The relationship of bus routes, frequencies and arrival distribution at bus stop has been analyzed by the means of probabilities and statistics methodologies. A prediction model of the numbers of buses arriving at the same time as Poisson distribution has been established as well. Furthermore, the length design of bus stop has been proposed to satisfy the level of service at a certain probability. Finally, the model has been implemented so as to improve program of the bus stops of Caishikou Intersection. By moving the bus stops towards the intersection, transfer distance has been much reduced.

关 键 词：中途停靠站 泊松分布 最大同时到达车辆数 站台长度 概率模型 

分 类 号：U412.12[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]