区域粮食安全度量研究——以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例  

Research of Regional Food Security Measure——A Case of Shilin Town of Wansheng District in Chongqing

作　　者：刘丽丽[1] 刘金萍[1,2] 李建国[1] 关冰[1] 郭晴晴[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理科学学院,重庆400047 [2]GIS应用研究重庆市重点实验室,重庆400047

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2010年第6期348-354,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金(9009)

摘　　要：随着经济的快速发展,工业化、城镇化的快速推进,粮食安全问题日益突出,对区域粮食安全进行度量研究,进而建立起合理的区域粮食安全度量模型尤为重要。文章基于粮食产量波动系数、最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力指数建立了综合区域粮食安全度量模型,并以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例,进行动态研究及预测,结果表明:石林镇粮食安全系数呈下降趋势,在未来5年内还有恶化的趋势。针对动态分析及预测结果,提出了相应的调控措施。With the rapid development of economy and propulsion of industrialization anu uroanizauon, agriculture problems are becoming increasingly obvious. It becomes particularly important that we take a research of regional food security measure and then establish a rational model of regional food security measure. This paper established a comprehensive model of regional food security measure based on the agricultural production fluctuation coefficient, minimum per capita arable land area, cropland pressure index. Taking Shilin town at Wansheng District of Chongqing as an example, we carried on dynamic research and forecasting in its development level of regional plant production by the model. The result showed that the food safety factor in regional plant production of Shilin Town was taking in downward rends and such phenomenon may become even worse in the next five years. So we put forwards the corresponding adjust and control measures based on the dynamic analysis and forecasting results.

关 键 词：粮食安全度量模型 耕地变化 石林镇 

分 类 号：S11[农业科学—农业基础科学]