基于偏离-份额分析方法的主导产业选择研究——以重庆市为例  

A Study of Choice of Leading Industry by Shift-Share-Method in the Case of Chongqing

作　　者：张军以[1] 苏维词[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆400047 [2]贵州科学院山地资源研究所,贵州550001

出　　处：《重庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第2期40-45,共6页Journal of Chongqing Normal University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(No.06XYJ017);国家973计划专题项目(No.2006CB403204);重庆市自然科学基金项目(No.CSTC2007BB7225)

摘　　要：在总结主导产业特性和对主要选择方法的优缺点进行比较的基础上,选用偏离-份额分析方法,以重庆市2002年和2007年两个时间点的29个制造业产业部门为分析对象,并以全国的29个制造业产业部门作为参照,对重庆市29个制造业产业部门运用偏离-份额分析法进行份额偏离分量、结构偏离分量和竞争力偏离分量的分析研究,绘制Shift-Share分析图。通过对分析图的分析研究筛选出了交通运输设备制造业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业、电气机械及器材制造业等3个产业部门;作为最有可能成为主导产业的优势产业部门,对以上3个产业部门的现有基础及未来发展进行了分析,并与重庆市"十一五"规划确定的重点发展产业进行比较,结果较为吻合,说明筛选出的主导产业比较符合重庆市的实际。研究结果表明偏离-份额分析法具有一定的客观性,但也具有易忽视规模较小的新兴产业的不足;确定重庆市未来的主导产业还有待于全面综合考虑各种影响因素,慎重确定。Based on conclusion of leading industries of the main characteristics and selection methods to compare the advantages and disadvantages, we use shift-share-method and select 29 manufacturing industry departments at two time points in 2002 and 2007 of Chongqing as analysis objects, with the circumstance of 29 manufacturing industry departments of the whole country for reference, to make a comprehensive comparative analysis of the quota to deviate weight, structure to deviate weight and competition ability to deviate weight of 29 manufacturing industry departments of Chongqing, we use of Shift-Share-Method to 29 manufacturing sectors of the share of component analysis, structural components and competitiveness to deviate from the deviation component analysis of Chongqing and draw Shift-Share analysis diagram. Through the graph analysis we screen out transportation equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry in three industrial sectors, which are most likely to become the dominant industry, the advantages of industrial sectors. The above three industries, existing infrastructure and future development are analyzed in the Chongqing municipality. ＂Eleventh Five-Year Plan＂ to determine the focus of the development of industries to compare the results more consistent, indicating filter out the leading industry more in line with the actual Chongqing . The results of the analysis show that the Shift-Share-Method has a certain degree of objectivity, but also are easy to over-look the smaller lack of new industries. Therefore, to determine the future of the leading industries of Chongqing, itis yet to be fully comprehensive consideration of various influencing factors and careful determined.

关 键 词：偏离-份额分析方法 重庆 主导产业 选择 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济] K902[历史地理—人文地理学]