大变形隧洞稳定性模糊概率分析  

Research on the Stability of Large Deformation Tunnel Using Fuzzy Probability Analysis

作　　者：赵延喜[1] 徐卫亚[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室岩土工程科学研究所,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国矿业大学学报》2010年第2期214-218,共5页Journal of China University of Mining & Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAB04A06)

摘　　要：为了分析大变形隧洞工程中存在的不确定性,用模糊概率法研究高地应力下大变形隧洞的稳定概率.采用模糊随机方法,推导出大变形隧洞稳定的模糊概率模型,模型中将围岩容许变形量作为随机变量,并假设随机变量服从正态分布,隶属函数取简化的线性分布.结合乌鞘岭隧洞F7断层带软岩隧洞工程,利用曲线回归和模糊概率对隧洞围岩稳定性进行计算分析.计算结果表明,开挖后第18天,左线隧洞,边墙稳定概率为15.2%,拱部稳定概率为99.1%,倾向于失稳状态;右线隧洞,边墙稳定概率为95.5%,拱部稳定概率为100%,隧洞比较稳定.模糊概率法考虑到工程中的随机性和模糊性,较确定性方法更加合理,有助于反映隧洞稳定性发展趋势.Fuzzy probability was used to analyze the stability of a tunnel in soft ground and under high geo-stress. The tunnel was undergoing large deformation. The allowable deformation in the surrounding rock was treated as a random variable and its probability distribution was determined. Fuzzy sets and random theory were used to model large deformation and to evaluate tunnel stability. Regression analysis and fuzzy probability were used to calculate the stability in the rock surrounding the F7 fault zone in the Wuqiaoling tunnel. Eighteen days after excavation in the left line the steady probability of side wall is 15.2%, arch is 99.1% and the tunnel is considered unstable. Excavation in the right line gave corresponding probabilities of 99.5% and 100% and the tunnel is considered stable. Fuzzy-random modeling predicts the actual stability of large deformation tunnels in soft ground, this model is more reasonable than some others, which favors successful prediction of stability.

关 键 词：深埋隧洞 高地应力 软岩 稳定性 模糊概率 

分 类 号：O211[理学—概率论与数理统计] TU457[理学—数学]