SWAT模型参数敏感性分析与自动率定的重要性研究——以玛纳斯河径流模拟为例  

Study on the Importance of Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-calibration of SWAT Model:Taking the case stndy of Manasi Watershed

作　　者：李慧[1] 靳晟[1] 雷晓云[1] 朱连勇[1] 张翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2010年第1期79-82,共4页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAH12B03):"水资源与水灾害空间信息服务系统研发";新疆水利水电工程重点学科基金资助项目

摘　　要：介绍了SWAT2005模型参数敏感性分析和自动率定模块的原理,并在新疆玛纳斯河流域中进行应用,通过敏感性分析及参数率定前后的结果对比,证明该模块对模型应用的重要性。根据LH-OAT敏感性分析法,辨析出影响玛纳斯河流域径流模拟结果精度的主要参数因子:积雪温度滞后因子(Timp)和基流回退系数(Alpha_Bf)。根据SCE参数自动率定法,确定出对径流模拟结果影响较大的11个参数值,并采用连续5年的实测日径流数据对模型进行了验证。结果表明:模型对日流量模拟的相对误差在模型校准期和验证期均小于20%,相关系数R2高于0.8,Nash-Suttcliffe系数Ens高于0.7,SWAT模型在玛纳斯河流域产流的模拟结果良好,值得进一步推广。This paper introduced the principle of sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration modules,and it was applied in Manasi watershed.Throngh the comparison of fore-and-aft result and the sensitivity analysis,it was proved that these modules are important for application.According to LH-OAT method,the main parameters which affected the simulated value in this watershed were the Timp and Alpha_Bf.According to SCE method,there were 11 ascertained parameters which had a significant influence on the daily runoff simulation,and the model was validated with 5 years of actual measured data.the results indicated that the relative error of the simulation results in the period of calibration and validation was under 20%,correlation coefficients R2 exceeded 0.8,Nash-suttcliffes coefficient exceeded 0.7.Therefore,the application of SWAT model in typical watershed in the Manasi was successful and reasonable,and the model deserves to be extended further.

关 键 词：径流模拟 SWAT2005模型 敏感性分析 自动率定 

分 类 号：P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]