基于层次分析法的水利水电工程A．D．HALL系统风险评估方法研究  

Study on AHP-based risk assessment method of A.D.HALL system for water resources and hydropower project

作　　者：李芬花[1] 纪昌明[1] 刘元 邢健[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学可再生能源学院,北京102206 [2]California Institute of Technology,Pasadena,California 91125-8700

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2010年第3期50-52,共3页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579019)

摘　　要：采用层次分析法对水利水电A.D.HALL系统进行分析,确定了A.D.HALL系统中各因素的风险对大系统风险的影响,构建了水利水电A.D.HALL矩阵的的层次模型。在此基础上通过层次分析法,构建了水利水电A.D.HALL大系统中的目标层、准则层、方案层,把水利水电建设过程中每一个阶段的风险进行整合,最后通过对水利水电系统A.D.HALL的风险评估,达到评估整个水利水电工程系统的目的,从而解决了对水利水电A.D.HALL大系统整体风险的评估的问题。Based on analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, A. D. HALL system for water resources and hydropower project is analyzed and the impacts from the risks of all the factors on the risk of a large-scale system are defined, and then a hierarchical model of A. D. HALL matrix is established. On the basis of this, the object layer, criterion layer and scheme layer within the largescale system of A. D. HALL are constructed and the risks from all the phases of the construction process are integrated. Finally, the target of assessing the whole system of the water resources and hydropower project is got through the risk assessment made on the A. D. HALL system for water resources and hydropower project, consequently, the problems from the assessment made on the integrated risk of A. D. HALL large-scale system for water resources and hydropower project is solved as well.

关 键 词：大系统理论 A.D.HALL理论 水利水电A.D.HALL三维结构图 层次分析 风险评估 

分 类 号：TV51[水利工程—水利水电工程]