泰州市肠蠕虫病流行趋势指数曲线分析  

EXPONENTIAL CURVE ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TENDENCY OF INTESTINAL HELMINTH IN TAIZHOU

作　　者：黄文明[1] 郭加宏[1] 贺玉川[1] 周红卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏泰州市疾病预防控制中心,泰州225300

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2010年第6期1141-1142,共2页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]掌握泰州市1997年以来的肠蠕虫病流行趋势。[方法]应用指数曲线回归方程对泰州市1997-2006年的肠蠕虫感染率进行拟合度分析。[结果]泰州市肠蠕虫病感染率拟合的指数曲线为y=101.78145-0.12563x,理论感染率与实际感染率相关系数r=0.993,P﹤0.01,决定系数r2=0.986。两样本配对t检验差异无统计学意义（t=0.271,P=0.793）。[结论]泰州市肠蠕虫感染率指数曲线拟合较理想,到2011年可达到1%以下。[Objective] To master the epidemiological tendency of intestinal helminth in Taizhou. [Methods] Exponential curve was applied to analyze the infection rate of intestinal helminth from 1997 to 2006. [Results] The fit exponential curve of infection rate of intestinal helminth was y=101.78145-0.12563x, the relation coefficient index between theoretical and practical infection rates was r = 0.993, P﹤0.01, r2 = 0.986. There was no statistical difference between the two samples by t test （t = 0.271, P = 0.793）. [Conclusion] The exponential curve function was suitable to fit the infection rate of intestinal helminth, and the infection rate in 2011 could reach to lower than 1%.

关 键 词：肠蠕虫病 流行趋势 指数曲线 

分 类 号：R532[医药卫生—内科学]