基于投资视角的新疆房地产业与国民经济动态关系研究  

Study of Dynamic Relation Between Real Estate Industry and National Economy Based on Investment of Xinjiang

作　　者：韩芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学人文学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《新疆农业大学学报》2010年第2期182-186,共5页Journal of Xinjiang Agricultural University

基　　金：新疆哲学和社会科学基金项目(08BKS006)

摘　　要：采用面板数据的变系数模型和向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数分析方法，对新疆房地产开发投资与国民经济和社会发展之间的互动关系进行了研究，认为新疆经济结构特点决定了GDP对房地产开发投资的带动效应总体偏低，宏观利率政策失效，信贷规模对房地产投资影响很弱，城市化是影响新疆房地产开发投资的重要动力；房地产开发投资对新疆国民经济的影响持久稳定，对2～5a内扩大就业人数和提高居民住房面积效果显著，应激活存量市场，并注意调整市场的供需结构。The aim of this paper was to study the interaction between the investment of real estate investment,national economy and social development of Xinjiang with a time-varying model and vector auto-regression model. It indicates that real estate development has a low influence on GDP. The interest rate lacks elasticity,and changes in credit scale have slight influence on investment in real estate. The real estate development investment has a long term influence on employment index in 2-5 years and increasing the city inhabitants housing area. But the used housing market should be encouraged and the supply-demand structure in real estate market should be readjusted.

关 键 词：房地产开发投资 新疆 变系数模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F239.3[经济管理—会计学]