区域金融风险预警系统的设计和综合度量  

Design of Regional Financial Risks' Early Warning System and It's Comprehensive Measurement

作　　者：谭中明[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《软科学》2010年第3期69-74,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(70671056);镇江市软科学项目(RK2008032)

摘　　要：构建了由外部影响因素和内部影响因素2个分系统、8个子模块组成的区域金融风险预警系统,运用科学方法遴选出一套有效的预警指标体系,确定了相应的临界值和风险监测预警区间,采用主客观综合赋权方法确定了各指标的组合权重,构造了区域金融风险预警指标体系的综合度量模型,并对2007年江苏区域金融风险状况进行实证检验和分析。This paper constructs an early warning system of regional financial risks affected by two subsystem and eight modules of internal and external factors. It selects a set of effective early warning system and determines the corresponding critical value, the risk monitoring and early warning interval by scientific methods,, in accordance with the simplicity, practicality and sensitivity requirements. Also, empowering the use of subjective and objective integrated approach, it aims to determine the combination of the weight indicators and the construction of a comprehensive measurement model for the early warning indicators of regional financial risks. Finally, it trys to make an empirical testing and analysis of the regional financial risk of Jiangsu, in 2007.

关 键 词：区域金融风险 预警系统 综合度量模型 综合风险度 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学] F061.5