黑龙江省畜禽肉类产量波动的影响因素及政策建议  

A Study on Factors and Policy Suggestions of Livestock and Poultry Meat Yield Fluctuation in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：车明诚[1] 赵鹏展[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2010年第2期179-182,199,共5页Research of Agricultural Modernization

摘　　要：本文以现代经济周期理论为基础,将黑龙江省1978—2008年畜禽肉类总产量的变动划分为7个周期,并建立起畜禽肉类总产量与各种畜禽肉产量之间的误差修正模型,得出二者间存在稳定的长期均衡关系;分析了各种畜禽肉产量短期波动对畜禽肉类总产量的冲击及产生的原因:即政策调整、技术推广及应用、动物疫病及其防控、饲料供给和市场需求等因素,就稳定黑龙江省畜牧业发展和畜禽产品产量增长提出政策建议。Based on modern business cycle theory,this paper divides the total livestock and poultry meat yield in Heilongjiang Province from 1978 to 2008 into 7 cycles and establishes the error correction model on the total meat yield and various of livestock and poultry meat yields, it show there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between the both. Then this paper investigates the impacts of short-term fluctuations of every kind of livestock and poultry meat yield to the total meat yield and their reasons, that is, policy adjustment, technology promotion and its application, animal disease and its prevention, feed supply and market demand, in addition, we propose some policies and suggestions to promote the development of animal husbandry and the growth of meat yield in Heilongjiang Province.

关 键 词：畜禽肉类产量 波动 误差修正模型 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]