随时间变化的机票折扣定价研究  

Air Ticket Discount Pricing Based on Time Varying

作　　者：施飞[1] 陈森发[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学系统工程研究所,南京210096

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2010年第1期112-116,共5页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：教育部博士点基金(20060286005)

摘　　要：机票定价一直是航空公司关注的问题,在适当的时间推出适当折扣的机票可以让航空公司增加收益.本文首先考虑到旅客提前订票存在风险,并认为风险概率满足指数分布;然后通过航空公司与旅客之间的动态博弈,给出航空公司的关于时间的定价模型;接着在得出的定价模型基础上,确定不同折扣机票的退票手续费和航空公司销售各种折扣机票的时间区间.研究结果表明:①航空公司能承受的最低票价越低,订票周期越长;②订票越是提早票价越低.最后通过一个例子来说明这个定价机制不仅理论上可行,而且在现实中也能很好的应用,不仅降低了航空公司的销售成本,同时也增加了他们的收益.Airline ticket pricing has been a concerned problem of civil aviation.It increases revenue by putting out the appropriate discount airline tickets during an appropriate time.The risk of passengers booking in advance is taken into account,and its probability meets the exponential distribution.And then,through dynamic game between airlines and passengers,an airline pricing model on the time is formulated.The different refund charges and the time intervals of different discount tickets are determined by the model.The results show that： ① if the cost of airline is lower,the booking cycle will be longer;② the earlier we book an airline ticket,the cheaper it will be.Finally,an example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed method which reduces the airline＇s sail costs while increases its revenue.

关 键 词：航空运输 退票手续费 民航票价 动态博弈 指数分布 时间区间 

分 类 号：F560.5[经济管理—产业经济]