多哈回合农业谈判最新草案对世界主要经济体的影响评估  

An Assessment about the Effects of the Latest Draft Modalities of Doha Round's Agricultural Negotiation on Main Economies

作　　者：吴朝阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2009年第5期94-107,共14页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：多哈回合农业谈判2008年12月草案(简称12月草案)明确了许多原来较为模糊的问题,为谈判的继续推进创造了条件。文章运用ATPSM模型就该草案对中国、欧盟、美国、日本四大经济体的可能影响进行了评估,并与保守方案、折中方案和雄心方案三大参照方案进行了比较。模拟结果显示,与参照方案相比,12月草案对中国农产品执行关税的实际影响较大,对其总体福利和消费者剩余的负面影响较小,但对生产者剩余增加和贸易平衡的改善程度也较小;对欧盟而言,12月草案对其生产者和贸易平衡明显较为不利,但从消费者剩余、政府收益和总福利来看,对欧盟仍较为有利;对美国而言,12月草案对其贸易平衡、消费者剩余、生产者剩余和总福利较为不利,但对其政府收益较为有利;对日本而言,12月草案对其生产者、政府收益和贸易平衡的负面影响相对较小,但其消费者剩余和总福利增加也较少。The revised draft modalities of December 2008 （December Draft）resulted from farm talks of Doha Round clarifies some key problems which were uncertain in the previous drafts, and paves the way for further negotiation. With the model of ATPSM, this paper simulates the possible effects of December Draft on four main economies, e.g. China, EU, US and Japan, and compares it with three contrastive Scenarios, e.g. Conservative Scenario, Compromised Scenario and Ambitious Scenario. The result shows that compared with contrastive scenarios, December Draft will bring China agricultural products obvious out of quota applied tariff cut, modest total welfare and consumer surplus loss, and rela- tively slight producer surplus increment and agricultural trade balance improvement as well. As for EU, December Draft is disadvantageous to its producer surplus and trade balance obviously, but from the perspectives of consumer surplus, government revenue and total welfare, December Draft is relatively better than the other three approaches. As for US, from the aspects of trade balance, consumer surplus, producer surplus and total welfare, December Draft is not a good choice, but US government gets relatively more from it. As for Japan, the negative effects on producers, government revenue and trade balance brought by December Draft are relatively slight, and the positive effects on its consumer surplus and total welfare are relatively limited as well.

关 键 词：12月草案 国内支持 市场准入 出口补贴 

分 类 号：F743[经济管理—国际贸易] F113[经济管理—产业经济]