基于MCI缺口的货币政策操作风险测度研究  

A Study of Operational Risk Measurement of Monetary Policy Based on MCI Gap

作　　者：贾德奎[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院风险管理研究院,上海201620

出　　处：《当代财经》2010年第3期45-50,共6页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(08CJY002);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(07JC790055);上海市教育发展基金会曙光计划项目(08SG55)

摘　　要：由于受短期目标的约束以及中央银行对宏观经济形势的认识偏差,若货币政策工具及调控时机选择不当,或政策信息披露不及时等,都有可能误导公众预期和增加市场的不确定性,从而引致货币政策操作风险。通过构建包含货币供应量的货币条件指数(MCI),并考察其实际值与均衡值之间的离差状况,结果表明MCI及其缺口可用于间接测度货币政策操作风险的大小,而所得到的风险指数可作为宏观调控的参考指标。Due to the constraints macroeconomic situation of the central instruments and the timing for regulation of short-term goals and the deviated awareness of the bank, the inappropriate choice of the monetary policy and control or the delayed disclosure of policy information are likely to mislead the public expectations and increase market uncertainty, which may result in monetary policy operational risks. By building monetary condition index （MCI） and analyzing the difference between the real value and the equilibrium value, it is found that MCI and its gap can be used indirectly to measure the operation risks of monetary policy, and the risk index obtained can be regarded as an indicator for macroeconomic control.

关 键 词：MCI 中央银行 货币政策 操作风险 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学]