“国际热钱大量流入中国”论评析  

A Review Regarding "Large Amounts of Hot Money Inflow in China"

作　　者：王国刚[1] 余维彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2010年第3期41-52,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(08AJY006)的一项研究成果

摘　　要：2008年3月底,在国家外汇储备数额为16821.77亿美元的背景下,有人根据所谓的全口径计算认为,仅2003年以后流入中国的国际热钱数额就达到了17542亿美元,是当期国家外储的104%,这种显然不符合中国实际状况的说法引起了轩然大波。本文认为,"国际热钱大量流入中国"说法存在4个方面问题:"国际热钱"概念扩展引致逻辑混乱,"国际热钱"流入的路径不清引致胡乱猜疑,国际收支项目不清引致估算严重失真,缺乏实践常识引致收益估算失实。By the end of March 2008, China＇s foreign exchange reserves had accumulated to 1682.177 billion dollars. In such context, some people adopted the so-called ＂comprehensive measurement＂ and estimate that the inflows of hot money had reached 1754.2 billion dollars since 2003, which accounted for 104% of China＇s foreign exchange reserves in 2008. Obviously, this view did not comply with China＇s reality, but it did make waves. We have identified 4 flaws existing in the view： the concept expansion of ＂hot money＂ leads to logic confusions, the vague inflow channels of hot money leads to random doubts, the misunderstandings of the balance of payment leads to serious distortions, and the absences of common senses leads to exaggerated yields.

关 键 词：国际热钱 流入中国 虚假论题 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]