经济基本面影响了住房消费吗——基于EG两步法和var模型的实证分析  

Does Economic Fundamentals Affect Housing Consumption?——Empirical Analysis Based on the EG Two-step Method and VAR Models

作　　者：王岳龙[1] 张瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《财经科学》2010年第4期50-57,共8页Finance & Economics

基　　金：2009年国家社科公共品供给、土地溢价效应与城市增长管理研究(项目编号:09CJY034)的支持

摘　　要：本文搜集了1998年一季度到2008年一季度全国时序数据,对住房消费与收入、利率、失业率、房价等经济基本面因素进行了实证研究。首先用EG两步法证实了房地产市场中特有的"量价齐升"现象,这主要归因于房价的强烈上涨预期改变了居民住房消费行为。随后进一步证实了住房消费与包括收入、利率、房价在内的整个经济基本面之间存在着协整关系,认为目前我国房地产市场整体上还没有出现房地产泡沫。脉冲响应和方差分解的结果表明,在影响住房消费的经济基本面因素中,收入对住房消费的贡献率是越来越大的,而利率和房价的贡献是越来越小的。This paper made an empirical study on the housing consumption and economic fundamentals factors from 1998Q1 to 2008Q1. By EG two- step method, it prove the unique phenomenon ＂simultaneously rising of volume and price＂ of the real - estate market which mainly results from the behavior of residents＇ housing consumption. We employ VAR model to further prove Co - integration existing between housing consumption and the economic fundamentals including income, interest rates, housing price. The result of impulse response and variance decomposition shows that the economic fundamentals is affecting housing consumption factors, while the contribution of incoome to housing consumption rate is increasing.

关 键 词：住房消费 经济基本面 量价齐升 房价 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]