不确定收益下公路BOT项目特许期决策方法研究  

A Methodology for Determining the Concession Period of BOT Highway Projects under Uncertainty of Revenue

作　　者：王东波[1] 宋金波[1] 戴大双[1] 李铮[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《预测》2010年第2期58-63,共6页Forecasting

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70702033;70572097);住房和城乡建房部软科学研究资助项目(2008-R3-5)

摘　　要：特许期作为BOT项目特许经营协议中的一项重要条款,一直是学术界和实务界共同关注的焦点。通过对特许期影响因素和决策方法相关文献的回顾,归纳出建设期、建设成本、交通量、收费价格、运营和维护成本等关键风险因素,采用符合项目实践运作规律的概率分布函数进行拟合,构建了项目收入函数和成本函数,根据对建设期、建设成本和运营期内收益净现值进行Monte Carlo模拟的结果,求解出在给定投资回报水平下的特许期区间,并结合一个实际案例对特许期模拟求解流程进行验证,为不确定收益下公路BOT项目特许期决策提供了一种可借鉴方法。Concession period is one of the most important issues through the concession agreement of build-operate-transfer （BOT） projects, and has been the focus in fields of both academy and practice. Through the review of relevant literatures on influencing factors and decision methods for concession period, several key risks including construction period, construction cost, traffic volume, price and operation and maintenance cost are concluded. Each risk is measured with a kind of probability distribution function according to the practical regulations, and further income function and cost function are established respectively. According to the results of Monte Carlo simulation to construction period, construction cost and net present value in the operation period, a reasonable interval of concession period could he determined at required rate of return on investment, and a case study is provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology and simulation techniques. It provides a referential methodology for determining the concession period of BOT highway projects under uncertainty of revenue.

关 键 词：BOT 特许期 公路项目 蒙特卡罗模拟 不确定性 

分 类 号：F294.1[经济管理—国民经济]