2000～2008年甘南藏族自治州5岁以下儿童死亡分析及趋势预测  

Death analysis and the trend prediction of children under 5 years old in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2000 to 2008

作　　者：陈亚[1] 卫春英 张存莲[3] 刘舒瑜[1] 李芝兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]甘南州妇幼保健院 [3]甘肃省卫生厅

出　　处：《中国妇幼保健》2010年第9期1229-1231,共3页Maternal and Child Health Care of China

基　　金：甘肃省卫生厅项目

摘　　要：目的:了解2000～2008年甘南藏族自治州5岁以下儿童死亡率,观察分析死亡动态及死亡原因,预测其死亡率。方法:对甘南儿童死亡报告卡进行整理分析,并使用曲线回归分析法对死亡率进行拟合及预测。结果:早期新生儿、新生儿、婴儿及5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势,与2000年相比,2008年早期新生儿、新生儿、婴儿和5岁以下儿童死亡率分别下降了7.58‰、10.81‰、21.74%和24.79‰(P<0.05);早期新生儿死亡原因以新生儿窒息、早产和低出生体重为主,新生儿及婴儿死亡原因均以新生儿窒息和肺炎为主,1～4岁儿童死因主要是意外死亡;婴儿和5岁以下儿童拟合效果较好(R2=0.775,0.826)。结论:减少早期新生儿死亡是降低5岁以下儿童死亡率的关键,加强围产保健及孕产妇系统管理是预防的重要环节;曲线回归分析法对5岁以下儿童死亡率的拟合效果较好,可以应用于预测。Objective： To understand the mortality of children under 5 years old in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2000 to 2008, observe and analyze the dynamic changes and causes of death, and predict the mortality. Methods： The death reporting cards of children were categorized and analyzed. The mortality of children under 5 years old was predicted by curvilinear regression analysis. Results： The mortalities of early neonates, neonates, infants and children under 5 years old showed a decreasing trend, compared to 2000, the mortalities of early neonates, neonates, infants and children under 5 years old decreased by 7. 58%v, 10. 81%o, 21.74% and 24. 79%0, respectively （ P 〈 0. 05 ） ; the main death causes of early neonates included newborn asphyxia, premature birth and low birth weight, while the main death causes of neonates and infants included newborn asphyxia and pneumonia, the main death cause of children under 5 years old was accidents. The fitting effect of infants and children under 5 years old was better （ R2 = 0. 775, 0. 826） . Conclusion ： Reducing the mortality of early neonates is the key to reduce the mortality of children under 5 years old, and the important prevention measures are strengthening perinatal health and pregnant and puerperal systematic management ; the fitting effect of eurvilinear regression analysis is effective＇for children under 5 years old, whith can be used as a predictive index.

关 键 词：甘南 5岁以下儿童 死亡率 预测 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]